sábado, 5 de abril de 2008

The Euro

The Euro. The official currency for the European Union since 1999 as an accounting currency and launched physicaly on January 1st, 2002. When launched in physical notes and coins, it met with the dollar at roughly 1-to-1 however today (april 5th 2008) beats the dollar at 1.57 (as shown at http://www.xe.com/). There are numerouse factors to explain such an economical difference in only 6 years, ie, the war in Iraq which is currently costing the US an outstanding $2 Billion per week (http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/09/28/cost_of_iraq_war_nearly_2b_a_week/)
International trade expenses have dropped by outstanding amounts (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/annual.html) for the United States but for europe those figures have risen (http://ec.europa.eu/trade/issues/bilateral/data.htm). Although statisticly saying the european economy has risen vastly in relation to international trading and international value (differences may occur due to other economicaly rising countries), there are countries that are still experiencing difficulty with the Euro and are becoming doubtful for investment. Portugal can be considerd one of these countries. The portuguese economy has sufferd some serious changes since the entering of the Euro. National consumer tax has risen to 21%, now dropped to 20% making it the highes it Europe. This proves a considerable difference for the day to day users on their shopping bill and filling the car up with gas. The minum salary has alter little since the entering of the euro, and prices continue to rise. In comparison to life with the former currency, the "escudo" and bearing in mind the salary grow since 2002, things are getting harder for the working class financialy. For what you would pay for an expresso coffee for example, in 2002 80 escudos (40 euro cent) has now alterd to an average of 80 euro cent. Thats double in 6 years. Although portugal continues to import/export at roughly the same values the resale prices are ridiculous. Despite this economical crises, the countries inflation level for now is stable. (http://overseasproperty.virginmedia.com/News/2008/February/20k.asp) however, according to http://www.geoinvestor.com/statistics/portugal/economicdata.htm Industrial production has risen, and construction continues to rise. Is portugal in for an economical surprise? If consumer rates are high, and industrial production has risen along with construction..who will buy all these items?
The most common saying financialy nowdays is to "invest in countries that are still under development". This is a valid statement, obviously the country not being yet developed and growing isnt really a gamble to investors and more of a sure on. Europe has developed outstandingly since the entering of the euro, and countries such as Portugal are developing drasticly. On the other hand, Poland still has a long way to go. You can get pretty much anything out of Polish in the United Kingdom, i got my car washed by some polish geezers in temperatures of 2º celsius for less than 1GBP, which technilly proves to be a significant amount to polish citezens working abroad. But will the polish economy rise within the EUR? Another considerable nation who is wanting in on the EUR is Turkey who currently hold a war with their fellow curdish community...but how will this effect the european currency? The european comission will have to loan money to help develop the nation first, but can this be considerd as an investment and not a loan? If so, in what aspects. What can you predict of the Euro for the next 10 years? And the dollar? How will the states manage to get out of resession and recover their "loss" due to Iraqui invasion? Or have they already recoverd this loss due to stealing Iraqui oil? One thing is for sure is that International oil trade is definatly positive for those who produce, and negative for non oil producing nations.
Thank you for reading this article, please feel free to comment or notify me on any invalid statement that i could have made.